A truly independent review of the Airport’s Cost Benefit Analysis

Ian Harrison, a highly respected  Principal economist from Tailrisk Economics, has released a truly independent (i.e. not paid for or commissioned by any Party involved in the runway extension) review of the Cost-Benefit Analysis. It really is worth a read. To quote from his Executive Summary: Recently, the Wellington International Airport Company released a cost benefit analysis of the airport long-haul capability extension proposal that purports to show that the economic benefits are $2,090 million, and are 6.8 times the capital cost. However, the benefits appear to be substantially overstated and are driven by projections of long-haul passenger numbers that are not credible, and favourable assumptions that boost the subsequent benefits for New Zealand. In critical markets high growth rates have been trended forward without regard to convergence to higher income country norms, and no regard has been given to the prospect of global warming policy initiatives designed to slow air traffic growth. A more realistic assessment of the project would show much lower and possibly negative net benefits. It appears that one of the purposes of the report is to make a case for central and local funding of the airport extension. Putting in public money to secure benefits Read More …

OPINION Dom Post: Wellington Airport’s runway extension plan struggles to pass the sniff test

PATTRICK SMELLIE Last updated 12:50, December 3 2015 ANDREW GORRIE/FAIRFAX NZ   While there may be 679 long-haul passengers leaving and arriving in Wellington every day already – enough to fill nearly three planes – how many are heading to the same long-haul destinations? OPINION: Running an airline is still one of the hardest ways to make a profit. IATA, the international aviation body, predicts total profits for the global industry of US$29.3 billion in 2015. Sure, that sounds like a big number, but it represents a return on capital of just 4 per cent – only slightly better than the feeble returns offered by bank deposits. Averaged across every airline, the average profit sums out at a measly US$8.27 per passenger, according to IATA director general Tony Tyler. That’s the trouble with impressive-sounding numbers. They can seem less impressive once you break them down. A good local example: the $2b benefit New Zealand might expect from extending the Wellington airport runway. That’s a $2 billion benefit over 40 years, or an average annual benefit of $50 million. That’s not to be sneezed at, but it’s a more meaningful figure against which to place the many risks of a $300 million Read More …

REBLOG Keith Johnson: Why can’t WIAL pay for the proposed runway extension?

BBC AND BBBC I was sort of retained as an ‘economist’ by the Guardians of the Bays ginger group that has been formed to contest the Wellington Airport Runway Extension Project – with our tiger-lady organizer Dr Sea Rotmann setting me to tackle the Notorious Business Case that has been recently developed by the consulting group Sapere. Now this ‘Master Tigress’ is a true ‘Legend of Awesomeness’ – and I quail before the obvious competencies and extreme activism of Sea and her very talented team of volunteers. Is there anything much that I can add to what they are already tabling? Yes – I think that there is. I’ll try to be a little bit more technical and focussed in my critique of assumptions and methods regarding the Sapere Report – mounting an economist-to-economist ‘Keep the Bastards Honest’ critique. In this article, I’ll concentrate on a simple question: ‘Why can’t Wellington International Airport Ltd [WIAL] pay for the proposed extension itself?’ Surely, this question is the central issue that should be addressed by the Sapere Business Case? Well I have to start by saying that Cost-Benefit Analysis in New Zealand is a swamp, with there being a distinct lack of Read More …

NEWS: Longer Runway not Plane Sailing

By Bernard Hickey As a Wellingtonian, I would love a runway that permits direct flights to Asia and the US. It would save me schlepping up to Auckland and walking the gauntlet through the carparks to the international terminal. It could encourage more direct international tourism and boost demand for foreign education. And what I’d love more than a fancier airport is the sort of house price inflation that Auckland gets from all those tourists, students and foreign buyers of houses. I’m frustrated at living in a “dying city” – as the PM famously called it – where house prices have risen 3 per cent in six years while Auckland’s rose 83 per cent. Even John Key acknowledged in August others would like to see Auckland-style foreign visitor and investor joy in their cities. So it’s no wonder Wellingtonians would like to juice up economic growth with Government help. This week, Wellington Airport detailed its case for a 354m runway extension. It would cost around $300 million and generate about $2 billion net benefits. In theory, it would allow long-haul 787 and A350 planes to fly direct from Asia and North America, although there is vagueness about whether planes could Read More …

OPINION Dave Armstrong: Dave Armstrong: Project Runway wild gamble without an airline

Hallelujah! After growing opposition from surfers, Moa Point greenies and airline pilots, the airport runway extension is taking off thanks to the latest report commissioned by, wait for it, the airport. Did you know that for every dollar we invest in the runway extension we could get up to possibly maybe perhaps seven back? It’s a no-brainer! That’s what the expensive full-page newspaper advertisement asking for feedback, led by a Clark Kent lookalike who could be any of the many designers and coders who do PR for the airport, implies. With a Phoenix player, a craft beer hipster and a film wanker in their ranks, these trendy superheroes could fly us into the next century, via the runway extension, supported only by a hefty ratepayer handout to pay for the million cubic tonnes of dirt. That’s because the government, private investors and Air New Zealand don’t want a cubic millimetre of it. Apparently there’s not much profit in the extended runway for the airport company – it only wants it for our own good. When news broke of the latest report, apart from being amazed by the number of times the words ‘could’ and ‘may’ were used, I was impressed Read More …

REBLOG Croaking Cassandra: What if they build it and no one comes?

A throwaway line of mine a couple of weeks ago about the Wellington City Council’s enthusiasm for the proposed airport runway extension prompted a couple of comments here from Tim Brown, chair of Wellington International Airport Limited (WIAL) –  owned 66 per cent by Infratil and 34 per cent by the Wellington City Council.  As I noted in response to Tim, I was predisposed to be sceptical about the proposal, but would be keen to see the analysis when it was published. This week a swathe of reports was released, including a cost-benefit analysis prepared for WIAL by Sapere Research Group.  The Dominion-Post led with talk of $2000 million of benefits for an investment of $300 million or so, suggesting that there really shouldn’t need to be much further debate about the economic merits of the proposal. But, of course, any cost-benefit anaIysis is only a reflection of the assumptions fed into it.   So I spent some time yesterday reading the report.  I had a few questions and observations, and was left unpersuaded that this was a proposal that either my rates or my taxes should be used to fund.  Quite possibly, this proposal could offer even worse value than Read More …

SOME REAL FACTS ABOUT THE AIRPORT EXTENSION

This week, we hoped that TV One News would give us the chance to provide some counter to the big bunch of spin all over the Dom Post recently. That was unfortunately not the case. The pilots, airline association and Steven Joyce have now all come out with serious doubts and concerns following the airport’s dump of 27 impact reports. Steven Joyce sent this (quite hilarious) tweet in response to the news: It is quite heartening for us when the National and Green Parties both agree that this amounts to economic folly, and that it basically is a form of corporate welfare. It is, however, a more serious issue for the Mayor who has been quoted: She [the Mayor] is confident the Wellington Airport runway extension will go ahead and be a game-changer for the local economy. Contrary to the claims of critics, she says, there are airlines seriously interested in backing the project. And the business case will be so good the Government won’t be able to refuse its backing either. It is also a serious issue for the Airport, as its own highly one-sided cost-benefit analysis (the peer review of NZIER as well as our own will soon Read More …

Radio NZ: Possible rates rise for Wellington airport runway extension

The Wellington City Council is not ruling out rate rises to help pay for a controversial runway extension at the capital’s airport. Photo: RNZ / Alexander Robertson The region’s mayors have agreed to stump up $150 million to fund the extension, with mostly borrowed money. But the Government was sceptical, and the national carrier, Air New Zealand, said it had no plans to fly long haul services in or out of the city. At about a million dollars a metre, the 350 metre extension (up from 300 metres previously) would enable airlines to fly medium-size jets on long-haul flights to hubs such as Singapore, Hong Kong or Los Angeles. But the mayors’ expectation that the government will front up with money for the project, is not shared by the Transport Minister, Simon Bridges. He expressed reservations about committing public money to a project which would benefit a private company, Infratil, which owns two thirds of the airport. “Effectively were council and the government to come in, there would be significant public money with a very significant private benefit. And we’d need to work through that, were we in principle to decide it were the right thing to do, very very Read More …

Stuff Opinion: Wellington needs a longer runway? Yeah, right

OPINION: When the canon of lost causes is examined in the future, somewhere near the top of the list for Wellington will be the local airport’s weird campaign for a longer runway. In recent weeks, Wellington International Airport has been running full page advertisements in local newspapers which, while no doubt welcome cashflow for the publishers of The Dominion Post, deserve to be judged as a case of good money thrown after bad. Despite a lot of local booster-ism to the contrary, the value of direct connections to Asia and North America from this country’s third largest city is very difficult to discern, unless you happen to be an airport shareholder. The shareholders in this case are the Wellington City Council, with 33 per cent, and Infratil, the infrastructure investor that sets high rate of return hurdles for its investments, holding 66 per cent. Their long-running public relations pushes for a runway extension costing around $300 million to allow new generation passenger jets to land here rather than routing through the country’s only regional hub, Auckland, and its second international airport, Christchurch. The cheekiest part of this push has been the suggestion that the economics won’t stack up unless there’s Read More …